Implications

This week, we’ve all experienced a rollercoaster of emotions as word of a ceasefire and hostage return deal shifted from possible to likely to agreed-in-principle. Knowing that many of the hostages will not be coming back alive is a crushing reality that families are grappling with, and coming to terms as well with the fact that at least for now, Hamas will remain  - though incredibly weakened and without substantive, effective military support - in power in Gaza is a harsh and disappointing reality. That said, it is clear that the large majority of Israelis - between 58% and 70% - wanted this agreement to go forward at this time. 

Our partners at the Jewish Federations of North America shared this outline of the current iteration of the agreement:

Stage One

  • The first stage will begin on Sunday and is set to last for 42 days.
  • Thirty-three hostages will be released in this stage in a staggered manner, throughout the six-week period.
    • The first hostages will likely be let out on Sunday, with women and children first, followed by the female soldiers, then men over the age of 50 and young men who are defined as “humanitarian cases.”
    • The humanitarian cases include Avera Mengistu, held since 2014, and Hisham al-Sayed, held by Hamas since 2015. Both Israeli citizens entered the Gaza Strip while already suffering from longstanding mental health issues.
    • The 33 include four female civilians; five female soldiers; Shiri Bibas and her two small sons, Ariel and baby Kfir; 10 men aged 50 and over, and 11 sick or wounded men.
    • It is understood that the majority of the 33 are still alive, and Hamas is obligated under the agreement to inform Israel as to the status of all 33 within the first week of the deal’s implementation.
    • The first three hostages are set to be released on the first day, with four more to go free on the seventh day. After that, three hostages are to be released every seven days, with the final 14 to be released in the last week of Stage One.
  • The IDF will withdraw from much of Gaza, but will remain in an area 2,300 feet wide along the border, and will also keep some troops in the Philadelphi Corridor (a small strip of land between Gaza and Egypt, considered critical to stopping Hamas from bringing in new weapons over the border).
  • Israel will release at least 1,000 convicted terrorists from its jails, including about 250 who were sentenced to life imprisonment. These will include terrorists captured after October 7 who were not directly involved in the attacks of that day. Some reports indicate that high-level terrorists serving life sentences will not be allowed to remain in Gaza or the West Bank, but will be deported to other countries, such as Turkey or Qatar. The exact number of terrorists to be released depends on how many of the hostages from the list of 33 are alive.
  • The final numbers of terrorists to be released will be based on agreed-upon ratios including:
    • Nine sick or injured soldiers in exchange for 110 terrorists
    • 58 terrorists (including 27 serving life-sentences) in exchange for each hostage over
    • the age of 50
    • At least 50 terrorists for each female soldier
    • 77 terrorists in exchange for the two Israelis who have been held long-term by Hamas (47 of whom were released in the Gilad Schalit prisoner exchange, but then later rearrested for terror offences).
  • Israel will begin allowing unarmed refugees to return to the north of the Gaza Strip on foot, without being inspected. At a later stage, return by vehicles will be allowed, once inspected.
  • The Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt will be reopened, allowing all sick and wounded civilians to leave Gaza for treatment, as well as large amounts of humanitarian aid to enter.

Stage Two

  • On Day 16, negotiations will begin on the release of the remaining 65 hostages, many of whom are thought to be deceased. All living hostages will be freed before the bodies of those who are dead.
  • Also in this stage, ongoing security arrangements will be discussed for the areas that Israel evacuates.
  • Israel would withdraw more fully from all areas Gaza only once all hostages have been released and all bodies returned.
  • Negotiators on Stage Two will also discuss how Gaza will be governed.

I’ve had an opportunity over the past 15 months to hear from and interact with many of Israel’s most insightful, pragmatic, and realistic journalists and analysts. Yesterday, I was part of a briefing by the individual whom I feel is the most informed, clear eyed and articulate of them, Haviv Rettig Gur. Haviv gave the outline of the deal in all of its stages, explained the current dynamics motivating Hamas and the decision making of the Israeli government. He conveyed in his analysis that he thought it unlikely that stage 2 or subsequent elements of the agreement would take place before a resumption in fighting. This analysis makes sense to me, even as it would leave the fate of any remaining hostages in jeopardy.

These are questions that we’ll see resolved one way or another in the coming month or two.

There are other questions, larger questions, that will increasingly demand answers.

Who will establish a state commission of inquiry into 10/7? What will its parameters be? Who will ultimately be determined to have been responsible for the failures of that day?

What conclusions will be drawn that will manifestly change and improve Israel’s capacity to gather, analyze and effectively use the intelligence it has and the military strength it maintains to defend its borders and the lives of its citizens? How will it deal with the IDF’s manpower shortage and the essential need to draft from the entirety of the population?

How will Israel and its allies deal with the architects of the ring of terror activated on 10/7, the regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran? Will Israel and the USA make final a decision on Iran’s nuclear aspirations?

How will an exhausted, traumatised, divided, yet ultimately more purposeful Israeli society recover, rebuild, and grow beyond what it has experienced in these last 15 months? What role can we play in helping her people?

The adversaries of the Jewish people who we have encountered here and around the globe have indicated - even in recent hours - that though fighting in Gaza may cease, they will not stop, and in fact will redouble their efforts to demonize, delegitimize, and apply double standards to the Jewish people and the Jewish state in our ancestral homeland.

  • Town and village halls will still be crowded with blood libelers
  • Schoolyards will still see altercations
  • Radicals will still spew hate from pulpits, actual or on social media
  • Jewish institutions will still be targeted for vandalism and violence
  • Campuses will still be hotbeds of hate and antisemitism
  • Jewish voices in the arts and the media will still be canceled and silenced
  • Israel will need support in Washington as much as ever

This means, of course, that we at Federation will still need to do what we’ve been doing at a high tempo with our partners across Rockland - motivate, advocate, celebrate, educate, console, confront, and secure.

So, the question I have for all of you is this, as Sean Connery’s dying character in The Untouchables says to Kevin Costner’s Eliott Ness:

What Are You Prepared To Do?

Are you prepared to work with us to stem or turn back the tide of antisemitism in our corner of the world?

Are you prepared to speak with us and with one voice to our elected representatives, here, in Albany, and in Washington, to secure the support our community and our brothers and sisters need?

Are you prepared to travel with us in the coming months to demonstrate our love for our homeland and our Israeli family?

Are you prepared to raise up the words and voices of our most creative Jewish American authors and artists?

Are you prepared to stand with our Jewish students nationwide, even if that means reconsidering your support for universities that are failing to protect our kids?

Are you prepared to demand action when hateful sermons are made in our neighborhoods?

Are you prepared to speak up at Town and Village council meetings when lies and libels are spread?

Are you prepared to work with Federation to secure your synagogues, schools, and camps?

And are you prepared to support - with renewed vigor - the essential work we do at the Jewish Federation of Rockland?

What Are You Prepared To Do?

Email me at arosenblum@jewishrockland.org to get started.